3
Big Cyril
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 79
Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength79%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2025-07-28 | Windsor | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Salisbury | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2024-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 6th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2024-07-19 | Newbury | 1 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2024 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 22/06/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/07/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/05/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 25/06/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/08/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |