Brummell
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 81
Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Doncaster | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Hamilton | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/09/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |