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9

Emperor Caradoc

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 72

Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark for the season at Thirsk in May and largely respectable efforts in defeat of late, responding well to application of blinkers when a close-up tenth in Silver Cup at Ripon (6f) 32 days ago. Draw in 12 less-than-ideal, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 74 · 5f3y GS 134 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 74 par29/035OR 744 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 par9/055OR 774 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 142 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 75 par16/065OR 755 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f18y Goo 141 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f18y Goo 140 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 75 par21/075OR 754 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 74 par15/084OR 74projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Ripon410th10th0
2026-08-05Pontefract44th4th0
2026-07-21Nottingham54th5th−1
2026-07-04Nottingham52nd3rd−1
2026-06-16Thirsk56th7th−1
2026-06-02Pontefract45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/032/0621/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/202613th8/158%25%-0.33
02/05/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
09/05/20263rd9/591%50%-0.41
02/06/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
16/06/20266th6/168%50%-0.18
04/07/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
21/07/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
05/08/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
15/08/202610th25/10%53%+0.53