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12

Empress Olivia

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 66

Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed reappearance promise when landing 13-runner event at Ripon (6f) in April. Struggled for form thereafter but eased back down to last winning mark as a result and she ran creditably when second in a C&D handicap 17 days ago. This looks a stronger contest, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 68 par3/115OR 685 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 66 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 66 · 6f GS 121 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 66 par16/044OR 664 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 70 par5/065OR 704 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 125 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 69 par16/075OR 695 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Hvy 129 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 66 par30/085OR 66projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley52nd3rd−1
2026-07-28Beverley57th8th−1
2026-07-16Thirsk56th7th−1
2026-06-12York413th13th0
2026-06-05Thirsk54th5th−1
2026-05-08Ascot411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/118/0516/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/11/20256th11/142%17%-0.25
08/04/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
16/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
08/05/202611th20/10%44%+0.44
05/06/20264th3/184%75%-0.09
12/06/202613th16/116%0%-0.16
16/07/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
28/07/20267th16/116%25%+0.09
30/08/20262nd11/142%91%+0.49