11
Fierce
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 68
Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |