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I'm Dan Dare

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 73

Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning stable debut at Catterick in May and doubled his tally with a bit in hand in 12-runner event at Newcastle (5f) the following month. Disappointed at York next time but shaped as if better for the run after 9 weeks off at Catterick 8 days ago. Still, this rates tougher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 5f Sft 12623/0956 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 55 · 5f8y Goo 130 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 53 · 5f217y Goo 133 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 53 par7/056OR 536 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 5f GF 132 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 55 par30/056OR 554 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 118 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 5f Sta 133 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 68 par25/065OR 684 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 124 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 136 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 73 par8/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick58th9th−1
2026-07-10York412th12th0
2026-06-25Newcastle51st2nd−1
2026-06-12York42nd2nd0
2026-05-30Catterick61st3rd−2
2026-05-17Ripon65th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0917/0525/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20255th40/10%50%+0.50
18/04/202611th11/142%38%-0.05
07/05/20262nd18/15%92%+0.87
17/05/20265th9/488%50%-0.38
30/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
12/06/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29
25/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
10/07/202612th8/158%0%-0.58
08/09/20268th20/10%13%+0.13