5
Straight Ahead
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 78
Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 04/10/2025 | 14th | 200/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 42% | -0.19 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |