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4

Al Baahy

7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 49

Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 100y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice a winner on all-weather in January but has struggled in handicaps since. Returns from 123 days off back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 49 par10/016OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 48 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m2f Std 137 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 52 par31/016OR 526 @ Chelmsford City 12/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 54 par3/036OR 546 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m75y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m6y Goo 122 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 52 par29/046OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 50 · 7f6y GS 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 50 par16/056OR 50projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-16Doncaster65th5th0
2026-05-05Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-04-29Pontefract68th8th0
2026-04-18Nottingham67th7th0
2026-03-03Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-02-12Chelmsford City65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0112/0229/0416/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
19/01/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
31/01/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
12/02/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
03/03/20268th8/158%22%-0.36
18/04/20267th17/255%33%-0.22
29/04/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
05/05/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
16/05/20265th20/10%67%+0.67