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Casilli

9yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 53

Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 100y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not won since 2022 but she's a force at this track and has recorded 5 wins. Likely needed recent return from 12 months off when showing she retains some level of ability so she's one to take very seriously dropping into 0-55 company for the first time, even though her draw could have been kinder.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 05/10/2024 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f1y Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2024 · OR 68 par5/105OR 685 @ Beverley 16/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m100y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Beverley 13/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 65 · 1m100y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 65 par13/055OR 655 @ Beverley 28/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m1f207y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Pontefract 09/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m2f5y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/06/2025 · OR 64 par9/066OR 645 @ Doncaster 27/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f43y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Doncaster 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m2f43y Goo 133 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 60 par2/086OR 606 @ Beverley 14/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m100y Goo 138 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m1f170y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 54 par15/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Ripon66th6th0
2025-08-14Beverley66th6th0
2025-08-02Doncaster66th6th0
2025-06-27Doncaster58th7th+1
2025-06-09Pontefract64th4th0
2025-05-28Beverley56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1028/052/0815/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/10/202411th10/147%23%-0.24
16/04/20256th13/266%50%-0.16
13/05/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
28/05/20256th10/382%38%-0.45
09/06/20254th7/282%67%-0.15
27/06/20258th13/266%13%-0.53
02/08/20256th10/147%17%-0.31
14/08/20256th9/276%44%-0.32
15/08/20266th28/10%58%+0.58