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4

Abu Royal

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 49

Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless in 26 starts but ran better when second of 13 at Musselburgh 23 days ago. 3 lb rise needn't prevent him being a threat again but whether he's in the same form is the bigger question.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 02/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 128 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 55 par2/096OR 556 @ Southwell 22/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m3f23y Std 132 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m4f14y Std 130 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 50 par5/026OR 506 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m6f21y Std 130 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 47 · 1m3f24y Std 127 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 47 par28/036OR 476 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 46 · 1m5y Std 126 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 47 · 1m5y Sta 130 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 47 par25/066OR 476 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 47 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 46 · 1m2y Gd 126 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 46 par24/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-07-05Ayr67th7th0
2026-06-25Newcastle66th6th0
2026-06-02Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-03-28Southwell610th10th0
2026-03-13Southwell68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0913/0325/0624/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/202510th28/10%0%0.00
22/01/20266th25/10%55%+0.55
05/02/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
13/03/20268th7/163%22%-0.41
28/03/202610th22/10%0%0.00
02/06/20263rd50/10%83%+0.83
25/06/20266th18/15%58%+0.53
05/07/20267th5/174%33%-0.40
24/08/20262nd16/116%92%+0.76