5
Back From Dubai
9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 47
Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.23 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |