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10

Due To Shine

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 45

Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless from 9 starts and turned in dismal efforts in classified company last time. Cheekpieces removed and down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS26/0745 @ Carlisle 12/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f195y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS24/0845 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 49 · 1m100y Sft 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Std 124 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 49 par2/106OR 496 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 48 · 1m2f42y Std 118 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 48 par5 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 47 · 1m4f8y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 47 par16/055OR 476 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 47 · 1m2f42y Sta 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 46 · 1m1f170y Sft 128 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 46 par31/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon67th7th0
2026-07-31Newcastle65th5th0
2026-05-16Thirsk511th10th+1
2026-04-13Newcastle67th7th0
2025-10-02Newcastle63rd3rd0
2025-09-17Beverley52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0717/0916/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
12/08/20254th50/10%40%+0.40
24/08/202512th80/10%8%+0.08
17/09/20252nd28/10%83%+0.83
02/10/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
13/04/20267th33/10%0%0.00
16/05/202611th40/10%0%0.00
31/07/20265th66/10%56%+0.56
31/08/20267th33/10%33%+0.33