Dumfries
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 52
Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |