6
Evelyn's Phoenix
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 47
Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.27 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 14/06/2026 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |