1
Hostelry
9yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 53
Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |