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3

Willowinghurn

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 54

Beverley · Hurn Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 100y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good third of 12 in a handicap over 7f at Ffos Las 26 days ago but not quite so good last 2 starts. Back down in grade here but does have stamina to prove for this slightly longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f213y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 66 par2/055OR 666 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f6y Goo 131 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 61 par14/066OR 616 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f15y Gd 131 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 7f75y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 57 par28/075OR 576 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 55 · 7f75y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 55 · 7f80y Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 55 par21/086OR 556 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f6y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 55 par8/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick64th4th0
2026-09-03Newcastle68th8th0
2026-08-21Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-08-12Beverley68th8th0
2026-07-28Beverley56th5th+1
2026-06-30Musselburgh65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0530/0621/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
26/05/20265th17/255%67%+0.11
14/06/202612th16/116%21%+0.06
30/06/20265th4/179%50%-0.29
28/07/20266th22/10%17%+0.17
12/08/20268th9/276%42%-0.35
21/08/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
03/09/20268th6/168%42%-0.27
08/09/20264th9/276%73%-0.04