1
Jackie Paper
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 93
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | BHA69 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |