2
Little Trouble
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 104
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |