8
Lord Knows
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 100
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |