Moral Dilemma
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-03 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |