4
Zoffarelli
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 111
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 03/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |