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5

Cowboy Killer

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 62

Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Oaklawn Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 40 · 6f 122 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 40 par21/02C9OR 40C9 @ Oaklawn Park 06/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 44 · 6f 122 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 44 parC9 @ Oaklawn Park 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 47 par20/03C9OR 47C9 @ Oaklawn Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 50 · 6f 119 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 50 parC9 @ Oaklawn Park 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 52 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 52 par26/04C9OR 52C6 @ Canterbury Park 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 53 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 53 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 51 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 51 par4/07C6OR 51C5 @ Canterbury Park 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 54 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 54 parC8 @ Canterbury Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 57 par23/08C8OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Canterbury Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-26Canterbury Park?4th1st+3
2026-07-04Canterbury Park?1st-1th+2
2026-06-14Canterbury Park?6th4th+2
2026-04-26Oaklawn Park?6th7th−1
2026-04-09Oaklawn Park?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/029/044/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20269th33/10%27%+0.27
06/03/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
20/03/20269th33/10%0%0.00
09/04/20264th50/10%70%+0.70
26/04/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
14/06/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
04/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
26/07/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
23/08/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09