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Honorable Mischief

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 60

Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength90%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Canterbury Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark08/08/2025 · OR 72 par8/08C8OR 72C8 @ Canterbury Park 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Canterbury Park 04/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 70 par4/09C5OR 70C6 @ Canterbury Park 17/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 5f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Canterbury Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par12/06C5OR 70C5 @ Canterbury Park 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Canterbury Park 26/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 71 par26/07C5OR 71C8 @ Canterbury Park 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 62 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 62 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 57 par29/08C6OR 57projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Canterbury Park?6th4th+2
2026-08-16Canterbury Park?4th4th0
2026-07-26Canterbury Park?7th4th+3
2026-07-03Canterbury Park?3rd0th+3
2026-06-12Canterbury Park?3rd0th+3
2025-09-17Canterbury Park?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0817/0926/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20256th10/147%38%-0.10
28/08/20255th11/271%43%-0.28
04/09/20254th15/261%40%-0.21
17/09/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
12/06/20263rd20/10%33%+0.33
03/07/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
26/07/20267th11/271%0%-0.71
16/08/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
29/08/20266th33/10%0%0.00