6
Private Speaker
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
63%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Canterbury Park | BHA70 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | BHA66 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -10.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |