Arijana's Pearl
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 89
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Turf Paradise | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |