10
Everything Bugs Me
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 89
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |