1
Mendelssohns Comet
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Canterbury Park | BHA67 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |