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Mitole Princess

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 75

Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Canterbury Park 15/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f Gd 11915/06C9C9 @ Canterbury Park 09/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 56 · 5f Fas 119 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 56 par9/07C9OR 56C6 @ Canterbury Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 43 · 6f Fas 125 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 43 par10/07C6OR 43C5 @ Canterbury Park 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 53 · 6f 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 53 par9/08C5OR 53C6 @ Canterbury Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 61 · 5f110y 125 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 61 par23/08C6OR 61C5 @ Canterbury Park 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 78 par6/09C5OR 78projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Canterbury Park?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-23Canterbury Park?5th5th0
2026-08-09Canterbury Park?1st0th+1
2026-07-10Canterbury Park?1st2nd−1
2025-07-09Canterbury Park?5th9th−3
2025-06-15Canterbury Park?2nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/069/0710/079/0823/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20252nd6/168%80%+0.12
09/07/20255th5/174%20%-0.54
10/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
09/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
23/08/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
06/09/20263rd25/10%50%+0.50