9
Morgs World
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 89
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 12/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |