2
Sahara Kara
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |