IvyArcIvyArc
3

Tour Queen

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 82

Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Zia Park 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 95 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 95 par3/11C5OR 95C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 101 par9/01C6OR 101C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 102 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 104 · 7f 118 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 104 par22/04C6OR 104C8 @ Gulfstream 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y 126 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Gulfstream 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m70y Fas 121 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 88 par4/07C8OR 88C8 @ Gulfstream 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 81 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 80 par21/08C6OR 80projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Canterbury Park?1st1st0
2026-07-19Gulfstream?5th7th−2
2026-07-04Gulfstream?5th7th−2
2026-06-13Gulfstream?7th9th−2
2026-04-22Tampa Bay Downs?6th6th0
2026-03-11Tampa Bay Downs?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1111/034/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/11/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
20/12/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
09/01/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
11/03/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
22/04/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
13/06/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
04/07/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
19/07/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
21/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12