Jackfire

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 52

Canterbury Park · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: BHA53

Recent avg: C5.9

Today:

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Canterbury Park	BHA53	5th	4th	+1	5.8
2026-08-16	Canterbury Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-02	Canterbury Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-12	Canterbury Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-27	Canterbury Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/06/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	60%	+0.07
12/07/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
02/08/2026	4th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
16/08/2026	2nd	20/1	0%	83%	+0.83
06/09/2026	5th	50/1	0%	50%	+0.50