Mansoura

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93

Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Canterbury Park	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6
2026-08-09	Canterbury Park	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6
2026-07-31	Canterbury Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-12	Canterbury Park	?	4th	6th	−2	3.6
2026-06-28	Canterbury Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-05-24	Canterbury Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength33%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/03/2026	7th	25/1	0%	25%	+0.25
16/04/2026	8th	50/1	0%	13%	+0.13
03/05/2026	8th	50/1	0%	46%	+0.46
24/05/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
28/06/2026	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
12/07/2026	4th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
31/07/2026	4th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
09/08/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
30/08/2026	4th	9/2	76%	40%	-0.36