8
Mendelssohn Joy
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 101
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |