Van Ginkel
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 20/11/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |