11
Annaline
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 55
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |