2
Midnight Joy
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 69
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |