7
Beauxbatons
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 59
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +46.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |