1
Pink Moon
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 67
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/02/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 06/11/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/11/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/12/2024 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/01/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |