3
Rising Creek
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |