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3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 78

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-09	Ellis Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-14	Churchill Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2025-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2025-08-18	Ellis Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength75%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/08/2025	7th	7/2	82%	14%	-0.67
30/08/2025	9th	33/1	0%	27%	+0.27
14/06/2026	8th	25/1	0%	13%	+0.13
09/07/2026	5th	10/3	82%	33%	-0.49