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2

Serenity Song

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 81

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS1/03C6C6 @ Laurel Park 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 86 par27/03C6OR 86C5 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 88 · 1m 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 88 par16/05C5OR 88projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-16Laurel Park?14th11th+3
2026-03-27Laurel Park?1st-1th+2
2026-03-01Laurel Park?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0327/0316/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20262nd11/1094%83%-0.11
27/03/20261st1/599%100%+0.01
16/05/202614th16/116%0%-0.16