4
She's Gotta Go
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 71
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |