Strife
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/7 | 99% | 86% | -0.13 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |