1
Carcar Express
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2024-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2024 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/10/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |