Culprit
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2024-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2024-07-28 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-06-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2023 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 23/07/2023 | 7th | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 04/05/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 23/06/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/07/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 19/09/2024 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 10% | -0.72 |
| 25/10/2024 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |