8
Dispersion
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |