Inordinary

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 81

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-25	Ellis Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-07-09	Ellis Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-15	Keeneland	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2025-10-04	Keeneland	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-09-26	Churchill Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2025-08-23	Ellis Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength76%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/05/2025	3rd	10/3	82%	67%	-0.16
13/06/2025	3rd	2/1	89%	71%	-0.18
05/08/2025	3rd	1/2	97%	60%	-0.37
23/08/2025	2nd	9/2	76%	88%	+0.11
26/09/2025	4th	10/1	47%	73%	+0.25
04/10/2025	5th	12/1	37%	64%	+0.27
15/04/2026	8th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
09/07/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	60%	-0.08
25/07/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16