Surfin' M
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 58
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/04/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 24/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |