Valiant Award
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |